4 Great Reasons To Rent

Who says you have to own a home to live the American dream? Renting can actually be better for your pocketbook and lifestyle.
By Mike Hammer, Parade
Before the housing boom went bust this year, homeownership was considered a good investment. But now, with the rash of mortgage foreclosures, renting may be a more attractive option. Heres why.

1. Renting can save money
According to popular myth, renters are just throwing their money away. But the reality is that when you buy a home, youre paying for closing fees, mortgage interest, property taxes, private homeowners insurance and maintenance costs that return nothing on your investment. Youd be better off banking that money or putting it into the stock market. In fact, a recent study by Fidelity Investments indicates that stocks provided investors with nearly 4.6% higher average returns in the past 45 years than real estate.

2. Homeowners tax deductions are overstated
Conventional wisdom says that buying a home saves you money because the mortgage interest is tax-deductible. But a study by the National Multi Housing Council a national advocacy group representing the interests of large apartment firms in the U.S. -- points out that half of homeowners dont get a break, because even with mortgage interest and property taxes, their total deductions do not exceed the standard federal tax deduction ($10,900 for couples and $5,450 for singles).

3. More options are available to renters
With fewer houses and condos selling, more owners are converting their properties into rentals or providing incentives to lure prospective tenants. In condo-heavy cities such as Palm Beach, Fla., for example where the vacancy rate has jumped 2.5% investors are undercutting apartment rates to generate interest. A lot of people are offering three free months to attract renters, says Robert Smith, a real-estate adviser in Orlando, Fla. And modern apartments offer amenities that may be unaffordable in a new home.

4. Renting gives you flexibility
Buying a home is a big commitment. If you have to move for any reason say, for work your property would need to appreciate by at least 10% for you to recover your sales costs, which typically takes about five years. Renting allows you the freedom and mobility you need to find the right job before you tie yourself to a massive home investment.

Homes in foreclosure top 1 million
Mortgage bankers report hits grim a benchmark in first quarter, showing a record number of homes in jeopardy.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

Last Updated: June 5, 2008: 2:09 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More than one million homes are now in foreclosure, the highest rate ever recorded, according to a trade group which warned Thursday that number will continue to climb.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's first quarter report showed that a record 2.5% of all loans being serviced by its members are now in foreclosure, which works out to about 1.1 million homes. That's up from the 2% of loans, or about 938,000 homes, that were in foreclosure at the end of 2007.

The report also showed that 448,000 homes, or about 1% of loans being serviced, began the foreclosure process during the first quarter. That's up from about 382,000 homes, or 0.83%, that entered foreclosure in the last three months of 2007.

The seasonally-adjusted rate of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments also hit a record high. Nearly 3 million home loans, or 6.4%, have missed at least one payment, while about 737,000 are at least three months past due, but not yet in foreclosure.

Grim numbers

"The figures aren't surprising, but they're pretty ugly nonetheless," said Michael Larson, real estate analyst with Weiss Research. "We're talking higher delinquencies and foreclosures pretty much across the board."

And he doubts that there's much reason to expect the foreclosure crisis to abate until next year at the earliest, adding that it could be a couple of years or more before foreclosure rates retreat to more normal historical averages.

"It's the same story we've been seeing for a while now - we had too much reckless lending, and buyers who got over-extended," he said. "We've had an unprecedented decline in home prices on a nationwide basis, which is public enemy number one for mortgage loans. And now you've got an overall economy that has slowed adding to this toxic stew."

Good credit, bad credit

Much of the problem lies with subprime loans given to borrowers with weaker credit records, especially those loans that had adjustable rates. Nearly four out of ten subprime ARM loans are a month or more late, or in foreclosure. And subprime ARMs account for 39% of the loans that fell into foreclosure during the quarter.

Prime fixed-rate loans, which are considered very low risk, have also seen sharp increases in their delinquency and foreclosure rates, although they are performing far better than the riskier loans on the market.

There are 431,000 prime loans in foreclosure, a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.2% that is more than double the 0.5% rate a year ago.

The report showed about 1.2 million prime mortgages are now a month or more past due, a seasonably adjusted rate of 3.7% of those loans. That's up from a rate of 2.6% a year ago.

According to Jay Brinkman, MBA's vice president for research and economics, the prime loan segment was hurt by so-called Alt-A loans, which didn't require income verification for buyers with good credit. Prime loans are also getting into trouble in places such as Florida and California, which have seen sharp home price declines.

"You still have people with prime fixed rate loans who lose their jobs, who get a divorce or have an illness come up, and can no longer afford a house," Brinkman said. "In areas where there's been home price appreciation, you can get out of that with the sale of a home or some other negotiation."

Getting worse before it gets better

This marks the sixth straight quarter in which a record percentage of loans went into foreclosure.

The trend has led to a widespread decline in home prices, as well as huge losses for banks and other financial firms that issued or invested in the loans.

Nearly half of the homes in foreclosure are concentrated in six states. But those states are undergoing two very different types of housing meltdowns.

California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada have been hit by a hangover after a home building boom in the middle of the decade, which was fueled by rising home prices and investors snatching up real estate using risky mortgages. Those four states have nearly 400,000 homes in foreclosure, or a third of the nationwide total. Roughly 3.6% of all of the loans in these states are now in foreclosure.

"Clearly things in California and Florida are going to get worse before they get better," said Brinkman.

The other two states that are ground zero for the crisis - Michigan and Ohio - have been hit by the more traditional economic woes stemming from rising job losses, particularly in the automotive sector.

Ohio has about 61,000 homes in foreclosure, while Michigan has about 54,000. The foreclosure rate in those two states is 3.9%.

There is a glimmer of good news. The rate of homes going into foreclosure in Ohio and Michigan was narrowly lower than it was in the fourth quarter, and 18 other states also saw a decline in that rate.

Brinkman said he hoped that means the crisis is at or near a bottom in much of the country, and that foreclosure prevention efforts have started to have an effect. But he added that a slight improvement in one quarter doesn't necessarily mean the end is near.

Indeed, the rate of homes going into foreclosure continued to climb sharply higher in California and Florida, as has the rate of loans in those states that are 90 days or more past due but not yet in foreclosure. Brinkman said that in markets like these, where home prices have fallen so far from the market's peak, finding solutions to keep a home out of foreclosure are more difficult.

He also added that, given the large impact California and Florida are having on the national foreclosure numbers, and the fact that historically foreclosures peak about three years into the loan's life, he expects the number of foreclosures will continue to rise.

Foreclosures spike 112% - no end in sight
More than 155,000 families have lost their homes to foreclosure this year; one out of every 194 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: April 29, 2008: 9:09 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosure filings in the first three months of 2008 rose more than 112% over last year, according to a study released Tuesday.

Real estate information firm RealtyTrac reported that nearly 650,000 foreclosure filings - which include notices of default, auction sales and bank repossessions - were issued in the first quarter. That represents 1 of every 194 households and marks a 23% increase from the last quarter of 2007.

Housing bust: Tell us your story

So far this year 156,463 families have lost their homes to repossessions.

"Foreclosure activity hasn't slowed down yet," said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac. "But I was a little surprised that foreclosure filings more than doubled since last year."

Foreclosures increased in 46 states and in 90 of the nation's 100 largest metro areas. Some regions that had been only marginally hurt by the mortgage meltdown recorded large increases in filings. In Connecticut, for instance, filings tripled compared with the first three months of 2007. Massachusetts recorded a 260% increase.

Nevada: Hardest hit

The worst hit states are still clustered in the Southwest; Nevada, California and Arizona lead the nation in foreclosure filings. Prices ran up rapidly in these areas during the bubble years as speculators snapped up single-family homes and condos as investments.

In the first quarter, 1 of every 54 homes in Nevada received some type of foreclosure filing - more than any other state. Its largest city, Las Vegas, had 1 out of every 44 homes go into foreclosure.

Stockton, Calif., had the highest foreclosure rate out of any U.S. metro area, with 1 out of every 30 homes receiving a notice - nearly seven times higher than the national average. The Riverside/San Bernardino region had the second highest rate in the quarter, with one of every 38 homes in default.

Only two metro areas in the ranks of the 20 hardest hit were outside the Sunbelt - Detroit, which ranked sixth in the nation with 1 in every 68 households in default, and Cleveland which saw 1 in every 105 homes go into foreclosure.

The news comes despite increased foreclosure prevention efforts by lenders and community organizations. Hope Now, the coalition of mortgage lenders, servicers investors and community groups, announced Monday that it helped over a half a million home owners avoid foreclosure during the first three months of the year.

And some local governments have stepped up their programs to help borrowers, according to RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio.

"For example, in late March Philadelphia issued a temporary moratorium on all foreclosure auctions for April," he said. "The city has since adopted a program that will delay foreclosure proceedings on owner-occupied properties until the owners have met face-to-face with lenders to attempt to create a loan workout plan that would prevent foreclosure."

More trouble ahead

Additionally, lawmakers in Washington, D.C. are at work on several plans that would deliver foreclosure relief to distressed borrowers.

All of these foreclosure prevention efforts may not be able to stand up to the tsunami of foreclosures on the way. Sharga says that a record number of hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) - worth $362 billion - will reset in 2008.

These so-called "exploding ARMs" usually have low introductory interest rates that reset much higher after two or three years, and then re-adjust as often as every six months after that. Unless these loans can be reworked, many will fail.

"We expect to see another foreclosure peak in the late third or fourth quarter of the year," said Sharga, "because of the record number of resets coming."

ECONOMIC FORECASTING SURVEY
U.S. Economy Hasn't
Hit Bottom, Survey Says

By PHIL IZZO
April 10, 2008

The weakening U.S. economy has further to fall, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.

By a 3-to-1 ratio, respondents said the economy is in a recession, and almost three-quarters said the economy hasn't yet hit bottom. "It's hard to say," said Lou Crandall of Wrightson ICAP, because "it doesn't feel like anything we've experienced in decades."

WSJ's Phil Izzo discusses the results of a survey of economists where further declines were predicted. They say housing, credit and consumer markets are the most uncertain. (April 10)

The survey was the first since the Federal Reserve's intervention to prevent the collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. The vast majority of economists -- 80% of the 46 who answered the question -- approved of the Fed's handling of the Bear Stearns situation.

That didn't translate, into high marks for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke or Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also was closely involved in the deal. The Fed chairman's grade rose slightly to 78 out of 100 from 75 in February, the last time the survey asked about his performance, but it is still far below the 92 he scored in September. Mr. Paulson's grade dropped slightly -- to 73 from 74 in February. "Bernanke has been too slow," said David Resler of Nomura Securities.

David Wyss of Standard & Poor's Corp. said the Fed was behind the curve through most of last year, moving too slowly in dealing with the credit turmoil, but it has caught up since January. The central bank's unconventional moves are "better than sitting there and watching the world fall apart because you don't have the perfect solution," he said.

Three interrelated issues weighed on the economists' minds. When asked what the biggest downside risk to their forecast was, 35% said further deterioration in the credit markets, while 25% said it was a sharp drop in consumer spending and 13% said continued housing weakness.

Richard DeKaser of National City Corp. was among those who said the economy soon will start to recover. "First, we've begun to see some stabilization in existing- and new-home sales," he said. "Second, the uncertainties plaguing the credit markets are beginning to narrow. And third, the policy actions taken by the government [the economic-stimulus package and Fed rate cuts] will begin to take effect soon."

Mr. Wyss isn't convinced. "Home prices are still diving," he said. "I won't believe that home sales have stabilized until we see the spring numbers, that's when activity picks up." He also said he suspects that consumer spending will slow further.

Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics agrees. "I expect soft consumption will keep growth way below trend right through next year and I would not be surprised by a soft 2010 either," he said. "You can't party for a decade, stop on Saturday and expect the hangover to be gone by Sunday lunchtime so you can go out and start all over again."

Unemployment forecasts supported the point on consumption. After three consecutive drops in nonfarm payrolls, the economists said they now expect the economy to shed an average 1,625 jobs a month over the next year. They expect the unemployment rate, now 5.1%, to rise to 5.6% by December. Meanwhile, just 21% of the economists expect home prices to hit bottom this year, while 67% see the bottom next year and 12% say it won't be until 2010.

The respondents on average expect U.S. gross domestic product, which grew at a slim 0.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter, to expand by an anemic 0.2% in the first quarter and 0.1% in the second, followed by a 2.1% increase in the third quarter. Most of the economists said they expect a contraction in the first half, but those expecting growth pushed the average into positive territory.

Consistent with their view that the economy will hit bottom soon, the economists said they expect the Fed to trim its benchmark federal-funds rate by another half percentage point from the current 2.25% by June -- and then to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.

Mr. Wyss, of Standard & Poor's, offered some hope for U.S. investors. "I do think the stock market has hit bottom," he said. "It usually bottoms out three to four months before the economy."

"Cash for Keys" Buyers' Revenge: Trash the House After Foreclosure
Banks Pay People Off
To Deter Home Rage;
Loose Pets, Paint Spills
By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS (WALL STREET JOURNAL)

March 28, 2008

LAS VEGAS -- Eddy Buompensiero noticed eight pairs of shoes outside the door of the modest house on Mother of Pearl Street, evidence that the former owners were still living there even though the bank had foreclosed.

Mr. Buompensiero, a gray-bearded inspector for REO Asset Services-1st Realty Group, rang the bell. When no one answered, he taped a letter to the door offering the occupants $1,000 to move out. The catch: They won't get a cent if they trash the house before they leave.

"If it was me, I'd take the money," Mr. Buompensiero said as he drove away. Either way, they're "going to get thrown out in a couple of weeks."

Glitzy Las Vegas isn't immune to the foreclosure crisis and WSJ's Michael Phillips reports bitter homeowners aren't leaving quietly. Now, banks are offering to pay them not to strip down or vandalize their foreclosed homes. (March 28)

The stucco subdivisions of Las Vegas are caught up in the nation's foreclosure crisis. These days, bankers and mortgage companies often find that by the time they get the keys back, embittered homeowners have stripped out appliances, punched holes in walls, dumped paint on carpets and, as a parting gift, locked their pets inside to wreak further havoc. Real-estate agents estimate that about half of foreclosed properties to be sold by mortgage companies nationwide have "substantial" damage, according to a new survey by Campbell Communications, a marketing and research firm based in Washington, D.C.

The most practical way to ensure the houses are returned in decent shape, lenders and their agents say, is to pay homeowners hundreds or even thousands of dollars to put their anger in escrow and leave quietly. A ransom? A bribe? "Yeah, somewhat," says John Carver, an agent specializing in foreclosed homes for Prudential Americana Group in Las Vegas. But "you lose a house, and then you get some financial help -- it's a good thing...It's a win-win for both parties.



No one tracks how frequently such payoffs are made. In Las Vegas, agents hired by the banks to handle foreclosed properties say the "cash for keys" approach, as it's known in the industry, is a regular part of the job. After all, formal eviction proceedings can take months and cost potentially much more than a payoff.

Analysts predict that as many as two million homeowners could enter foreclosure this year, caught by a slowing economy, falling house prices and, in many cases, adjustable mortgages with rates rising from high to higher. In Las Vegas, 1.9% of homes in the Las Vegas area were in the foreclosure process in January, almost triple the rate of a year earlier, according to First American CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, Calif., real-estate and mortgage data company.

Getting Revenge

Each day, auctioneers offer 150 to 200 properties for sale in the small lobby of the Nevada Legal News -- a high-speed inventory of dreams forfeited on Lucky Boy Drive, Jackpot Circle and other Las Vegas addresses. Often in attendance is Eddie Haddad, a 36-year-old who cut his real-estate teeth buying and restoring foreclosed properties. During the boom, he tried developing a 38-story tower of lofts for the Las Vegas art set. But the project stalled, and a few weeks ago, Mr. Haddad again found himself shopping for bargains at the foreclosure auction.

"We expect them to be trashed," Mr. Haddad says of the homes he buys. He prefers to call in the sheriff when he needs to evict hold-out occupants; for him, paying cash is a "last resort."

About 95% of the auctioned properties, however, go unsold and revert to banks eager to get the properties off their books. Some owners just walk away peacefully. But agents say a significant number take what they can carry and take revenge on the rest.

"I'm one of the thousands of people in town in foreclosure so I'd like to get as much as possible for the items," said one recent Las Vegas online ad offering a double wall oven, dishwasher and built-in microwave, all of which, in most cases, legally belong to the bank. Rules vary by state and county, but in Las Vegas, banks typically own everything that is built into a foreclosed home.

"When you're losing your dream, and you're paying all this money to it...and you're hoping that it's going to go up, and you're going to make 100 grand like everybody else did, and it doesn't happen -- you know, people get upset," says Joe Kraemer, a broker with Century 21 Advantage Gold who deals in foreclosed homes.

The evidence of that discontent was all over the carpet when Mr. Carver, of Prudential Americana Group, first visited a foreclosed house on Perfect Parsley Street. It didn't look like the usual waste from an abandoned dog or cat. "I would say 'ferret' from the way it's all along the baseboard, the way an animal would scurry," he said recently, leafing through photos of his most-memorable vandalized properties.

The original owner bought the house new in 2003 for $131,000. A year ago, Mr. Carver says, it could have fetched a quarter of a million. But the market fell fast and the owner, for unknown reasons, fell delinquent. The bank hired Mr. Carver and Leslie Carver, his wife and business partner, to list it, but chose not to refurbish before selling. The house sold for $170,000 in November, ferret scat included.

Crowbar Damage

Cruising the wreckage of the Las Vegas property market every day in his silver Cadillac Escalade, the 38-year-old Mr. Carver has developed a connoisseur's eye for pointless destruction. Vandals who break into empty houses often smash windows and paint graffiti on the walls, he says. But it takes an enraged, delinquent mortgagor to indulge in a frenzy of destruction, such as the one that took place recently in a three-bedroom, 1,949-square-foot house in a residential and industrial area northeast of the casinos on the Strip.

Light switches, outlet covers and thermostats were smashed. There was what looked to be crowbar damage along the staircase. A large pool of paint had hardened on the living-room carpet. It appeared that someone had dripped motor oil in a trail that wound its way through every carpeted room. The appliances were gone, as were most light fixtures. A cabinet door had been removed and left soaking in a full tub of water. Not a wall was left without a hole the diameter of a closet rod, including the pink child's room once carefully decorated with a floral wallpaper stripe. It's damage that Mr. Carver described as "a vengeance-type thing."

"Some people have issues, and need to do what they have to do, I guess," he said.

The former owners, who couldn't be located, paid $261,892 for the house when it was new in March 2006, borrowing $209,513 in their first mortgage, according to public records. Now it's listed for $149,000 -- as is.

Banks rarely pursue charges against destructive homeowners; it's not worth the cost and trouble. Instead, they try to prevent home rage by giving agents such as Mr. Carver blanket authorization to offer at least $300 to occupants to get them to leave peacefully.

Late last month, Mr. Carver left a letter on the door of a house with a red-tiled roof in Henderson, abutting Las Vegas. "I may be able to offer you cash to vacate the property," the note said.

The owner, a 43-year-old man with two children who spoke on the condition that his name not be used, says he bought the property in 1993 for $140,000. Three years ago, he says he had the house appraised for $440,000 and took out a $207,000 home-equity loan to pay off credit-card bills and buy his wife a new van. His initial payments were an affordable $1,800 a month.

He fell behind, however, after he went through a divorce and his landscaping business faltered, just as his interest rate was rising. The man worked out a payment plan with the bank and borrowed heavily from his father, but, including penalties, his monthly payments rose to $4,000, he says. After two months, he says, he ran out of money, and the bank foreclosed.

He called Mr. Carver after receiving the cash-for-keys note, but was left cold by the bank's initial $500 offer to leave the house soon, intact and broom-swept. "If I stay here it will cost them a lot more money," both men remember the former owner saying.

The man says he was just pointing out that eviction is expensive for the bank and says he had no intention of damaging the house. But he had "pushed the right buttons" for Mr. Carver. "He didn't actually come out and threaten the property in any way," Mr. Carver says. "But I assumed that he probably wouldn't be too happy if he got evicted and locked out."

Mr. Carver consulted with the bank and upped the offer to $2,800.

"Better than nothing," the owner responded.

Last week, Mr. Carver went to the house, found it clean and whole, and handed the man a check. "Everybody walks away somewhat happy," Mr. Carver said. "I guess."

1 Million Homes in Foreclosure
Source: USA TODAY
Publication date: March 7, 2008

By Greg Farrell and Noelle Knox
A record number of U.S. homes were facing foreclosure at the end of last year, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday, a trend that's expected to continue until late this year as more subprime borrowers fall behind on their payments.
Nearly 3 million homeowners, 6.3%, were behind on their mortgages in the fourth quarter of last year, and more than 1 million more borrowers -- a record 2% of all loans -- were in foreclosure. The key drivers of the increase were in California and Florida, which together accounted for about 30% of the new foreclosures.
Nationwide, more homeowners with spotty credit slipped behind on their monthly payments. About one in three borrowers with subprime adjustable-rate loans were in default or foreclosure at the end of last year.
"We don't expect to see a peak in delinquency rates and foreclosures until mid- to late 2008," says Doug Duncan, MBA chief economist.
One bright spot, Duncan says, is that the default and foreclosure rates in Michigan, the worst in the nation, and in Ohio appeared to have leveled off.
Though the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cuts in the past two months have kept the foreclosure rate from soaring even higher, the MBA says, weak economic conditions and falling home values in many areas will continue to cause more homeowners to default and lose their properties.
Borrowers are considered "delinquent" once they miss one monthly mortgage payment. The foreclosure process usually doesn't start until a homeowner is 90 days past due.
Data on January foreclosures compiled by RealtyTrac support the MBA's view, says Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac. "Our best estimate is we won't see foreclosure rates start to fall off until the end of the year."
An estimated 1.8 million subprime ARMs are expected to have their first payment reset this year and next. Many are projected to reset to higher rates in May or June, Sharga says, and could default in the third quarter, leading to a spasm of foreclosures in the last three months of 2008.
"Until they work their way through the system," he says, "we don't see any way that foreclosure levels will decrease."
The Homeownership Preservation Foundation, which runs a toll-free hotline service to counsel borrowers who are having trouble paying mortgages (888-995-HOPE), says call volume soared from 27,000 in November to 94,000 in December last year. In January, the foundation fielded 82,000 calls; in February, the number was 92,000.
(c) Copyright 2008 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.

US home foreclosures soar in January
By ALEX VEIGA, AP Business Writer
Tue Feb 26, 7:39 AM ET

LOS ANGELES - The number of homes facing foreclosure jumped 57 percent in January compared to a year ago, with lenders increasingly forced to take possession of homes they couldn't unload at auctions, a mortgage research firm said Monday.

Nationwide, some 233,001 homes received at least one notice from lenders last month related to overdue payments, compared with 148,425 a year earlier, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. Nearly half of the total involved first-time default notices.

The worsening situation came despite ongoing efforts by lenders to help borrowers manage their payments by modifying loan terms, working out long-term repayment plans and other actions

"You have more people going into default and a higher percentage of the properties going back to the banks," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing.

The U.S. foreclosure rate last month was one filing for every 534 homes.

The Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in Florida posted the highest foreclosure rate of any metro area in the nation, with one of every 86 homes in some stage of foreclosure, said RealtyTrac Inc.

Stockton, Calif., was ranked second, with one of every 97 homes involved in a foreclosure filing, while the Riverside-San Bernardino metro area in Southern California had the third-highest foreclosure rate with filings for one of every 101 properties.

January's tally represented an 8 percent hike from December.

RealtyTrac follows default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. Lenders typically consider borrowers delinquent after they fall three months behind on mortgage payments.

Attempts to help struggling home owners have fallen short.

"The loan workout modification programs aren't having a significant material effect on keeping properties from going back to the banks," Sharga said.

One dramatic trend last month was a 90 percent spike in the number of properties that were repossessed by banks, compared to January 2007.

"It suggests that there's little or no equity in a lot of these homes, because they're not even being sold to investors at auctions, and it suggests a continuing weakness in a lot of markets in terms of real estate sales," Sharga said.

Falling home values and tighter lending standards have extended the housing slump, making it tougher for homeowners unable sell their homes or refinance when they face mortgage payments they can't afford.

A wave of adjustable rate mortgage resets expected in May and June threatens to push many other homeowners into default.

During the past year, 30 states saw an increase in the number of homes that had received at least one filing.

Nevada led the nation, with 6,087 properties receiving at least one filing, up 95 percent from a year earlier but down 45 percent from December, the firm said.

That translates to a rate of about one foreclosure for every 167 households.

Rounding out the top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates were California, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Massachusetts, Georgia, Connecticut, Ohio and Michigan.

California had 57,158 properties reporting at least one filing, the most of any state. The total increased 120 percent from a year ago and 7 percent from December.

Florida had 30,178 homes on the foreclosure track, up about 158 percent from a year earlier and down 3 percent versus December, RealtyTrac said.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
February 6 2008: 10:21 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Mortgage payments are set to jump. Home prices have plunged. "I'm outta here."
Homeowners are abandoning their homes and, more importantly, their mortgages, rather than trying to keep up with rising payments on deteriorating assets. So many people are handing their keys back to lenders that a new term has been coined for it: jingle mail.
"I stopped paying my mortgage in October, after shelling out about $70,000 in interest [over 15 months]," said one borrower, David, who doesn't want his last name used. "Now, I'm just waiting for the default notice."
The Los Angeles-based writer bought two properties in Hancock Park, west of downtown, using no-down, interest-only mortgages in 2006. He paid just over $1 million for both.
David had planned to sell them quickly but got caught in the slump. Soon his interest rate will jump by a few points, and his payments will go up by several hundred dollars a month for each place. He figures his properties have fallen in value by at least $60,000 each.
Current lending practices have created an environment where a measure as extreme as abandoning a home actually makes sense to some people.
Many buyers put little or no money down, so they don't have much invested in them. That leaves them with little incentive to keep making payments when a home's market value dips below the balance of the mortgage.
The most serious consequence is a tremendous hit to credit scores. For some, that's better than throwing away money they'll never recover by selling their home.
And while a mortgage default can savage a person's credit record, trying to pay off a loan they can't afford could be worse for borrowers if it leads to bankruptcy, said Craig Watts, a spokesman for the credit reporting firm Fair Isaac.
Credit scores are hurt much more by missing multiple payments - on credit cards, cars and so on - than by a single foreclosure.
"The time it takes to regain your credit score [after foreclosure] can be shorter than after bankruptcy," said Watts.
It typically takes three years of a spotless payment record after a bankruptcy before credit scores recover enough for someone to think about buying a home again, he said. After abandoning a mortgage, a person may be able to buy a new house in two years or less.
And now skipping out on a home is easier, thanks to the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007. Previously, if a bank sold a foreclosed home for less than the mortgage balance and it forgave the difference, the borrower had to pay tax on that difference as if it were income. Now the IRS will ignore it.
"That's going to help a lot of people," said Mike Gray, a San Jose accountant who runs the web site Realestatetaxletter.com.
The trend of walking away is most pronounced among real estate investors, according to Jay Brinkman, an economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
But families are doing it too. "If they have to stretch to make mortgage payments for a home that will not recover its value, then yes, they may walk away," he said.
Often they chose hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) that came with low initial payments. After a few years, interest rates on these loans reset higher. But buyers thought they could count on the increased value of their homes to refinance into affordable, fixed-rate loans.
Now, that may not be possible. Take Susan (not her real name), a client of HouseBuyerNetwork.com, which specializes in arranging short sales. A short sale is when a bank agrees to accept the sale price paid for a home - even if it is less than the outstanding mortgage on it - as payment in full. An owner might sell a house with a $200,000 mortgage for $180,000, and then the bank forgives the difference.
HouseBuyerNetwork.com CEO Duane LeGate says that Susan's two-bedroom condo in Sonoma County is worth $340,000, but the mortgage balance is $380,000. She can't refinance and it's difficult to sell.
She's still trying for a short sale but, said LeGate, "She'll almost certainly end up walking away."
Beyond anecdotes, some statistics indicate that hard-pressed owners are deliberately courting foreclosure. An analysis by the consumer credit rating agency Experian last spring found that many borrowers were choosing to pay off credit card and other consumer debt before making mortgage payments. They were electing to put their mortgage at risk rather than their credit cards or auto loans.
Similarly, Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National City Corp., (NCC, Fortune 500) notes that while all credit metrics are deteriorating, mortgage delinquencies are rising disproportionately. "That makes sense if people are choosing to walk away," he said.
And now reports are emerging of homeowners skipping out on mortgages even though they can still afford to pay them.
Wachovia (WB, Fortune 500) CEO Ken Thompson described these people on an earnings call last month."[These are] people that have otherwise had the capacity to pay, but have basically just decided not to, because they feel like they've lost equity, value in their properties."
Lenders are afraid that borrowers may find it's worth the hit to their credit scores, if they can drastically reduce their housing expenses. Someone with good credit and a $600,000 home in a town with cratering real estate prices could buy a similar house nearby for $450,000, and then let the other $600,000 mortgage go into foreclosure.
The stage is set for this kind of thing particularly in California, where huge numbers of buyers used low or no-down deals to buy homes. The trend has even spawned at least one new business, San Diego-based YouWalkAway.com, which for a fee of $1,000 purports to guide clients through the process of ditching their mortgages. It launched in early January, and says it has already signed up 180 clients.
California is a bit of a safe haven for these borrowers, since banks that repossess and then sell a foreclosed property for less than the mortgage that was owed on it cannot come after borrowers for the difference - as long as it's the initial mortgage, one that has not been refinanced. So if a borrower owes $200,000 and the bank sells the house for $170,000, the borrower comes out of it debt-free.
And for many homeowners, the prospect of becoming debt-free is growing increasingly alluring.

Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill
According to a Merrill Lynch report, home prices will drop 15 percent this year, and declines will continue in 2009.

By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
January 23 2008: 5:24 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The worst housing financial crisis in decades is only going to get worse, a Merrill Lynch report said Wednesday.
The investment bank forecasted a 15 percent drop in housing prices in 2008 and a further 10 percent drop in 2009, with even more depreciation likely in 2010.
By contrast, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects housing prices to remain flat in 2008. NAR did cut its home price estimate for the current quarter, however, to a 5.3 percent year-over-year decline, which represents the steepest drop in that price measure on record. But NAR sees an uptick in home prices in the last two quarters of 2008.
"Merrill Lynch's figures are way too pessimistic, and they are unprecedented," Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist told CNNMoney.com. "There is so much variation in local housing markets, and we see stable price conditions for 2008."
The current housing crisis and the depreciation in home prices have pummeled the economy, with businesses and consumers cutting back on spending, raising the specter of a recession. "Lower sales and higher inventory for sales are lowering the velocity of transactions," said Fritz Siebel, Director of US Property Derivatives for Tradition Financial Services. "That cannot be a sign of good health for the economy."
But for those who think that the worst is over, Merrill Lynch said that housing prices still remain comparatively high. The brokerage believes that home prices are still far above historical norms when compared to other measures such as rent or GDP. "By our calculations, it will take about a 20 to 30 percent decline in home prices to correct this imbalance," said the report.
Merrill Lynch believes that housing starts will most likely slide another 30 percent by the end of 2008 - a historic low.
The report says that the inventory situation only continues to worsen, as homebuilders are now looking at more than a nine months' supply. "The current supply/demand environment does not favor a swift recovery in the housing market, in our view," according to the report.

The forecast is for a longer, deeper home-price slump than previously expected, with double-digit declines in many markets.

Other metro areas expected to go through crushing price drops include: Stockton, Calif., where prices are forecast to drop 31.6 percent, Modesto, Calif. (-31.3 percent), Fort Walton Beach, Fla. (-30.4 percent) and Naples, Fla. (-29.6 percent).

The worst hit market outside the Sun Belt is expected to be Ocean City, N.J. where prices will fall 24.9 percent, according to Moody's. Prices in St. George, Utah (-21.8 percent), Grand Junction, Colo. (-18.9 percent) and Atlantic City, N.J. (-18.6 percent) will also suffer. In the Washington, D.C. metro area, Moody's forecasts a decline of 18.4 percent.

Home prices are being pulled down by an even more severe decline in home sales, which Moody's expects to bottom out in early 2008, when unit sales will be down more than 40 percent from their peak.

Home builders continued to add to inventory even as the slump got well under way, contributing to what is now an 11-month back-log of homes for sale, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Many of these homes are sitting completely empty: The Census Bureau reported a total of 2.1 million vacant homes for sale. Vacant homes add pressure on prices because owners of these houses are usually more willing to slash prices to move the properties. They cost out-of-pocket cash each month while providing neither income nor shelter.

Even though home construction has now contracted severely - the Census Bureau reported Tuesday that new housing starts were down to an annualized rate of 1.187 million units in November, the lowest in 16 years - it will take time to work through the excess inventory.

The housing slump will have a substantial impact on the overall economy, according to Moody's, which says it will depress real gross domestic product by more than a percentage point this year and by 1.5 percentage points in 2008.

Speculative investment in the mid-2000s helped fuel the current slump. Zandi pointed out that 16 percent of mortgage originations during 2005 were for non-owner-occupied housing, twice the number of a few years earlier.

"And that's a very conservative estimate of investor demand," he said. "Many home buyers lied on their mortgage applications." That's because interest rates are lower for owner/occupied dwellings.

Buying for investment was especially prevalent in many resort areas, such as Ocean City, N.J. Many buyers were betting they could hold onto the property for a short time and sell it for a quick profit, a difficult feat to finesse, considering the high transactional costs. Many speculators came late to the party and got caught in the slump. Now their properties are adding to mountainous inventories.

Another factor was excessive new home construction, especially in once hot markets. As prices skyrocketed, builders rushed to take advantage of the increases, contributing to the now high inventories.

Also adding homes to markets was the increase in foreclosure filings. When lenders take back properties, they put them back on the markets. Foreclosures have just about doubled this year.

For the slump to end, much of the excess inventory will have to be worked through. Zandi doesn't envision that happening much before 2010, which he forecasts to be a very modest recovery year with low, single-digit growth.

11.01.2007
SOURCE - REUTERS
US Q3 FORECLOSURES ALMOST DOUBLED FROM '06 - REPORT

U.S. residential foreclosure filings nearly doubled last quarter from a year earlier, and appear set to increase into 2008, a report said on Thursday.

Foreclosure filings for July-September rose to 635,159, representing one in every 196 households and a 30 percent jump from the second quarter, according to RealtyTrac, a marketer of foreclosure properties based in Irvine, California.


The level climbed in 45 out of 50 states in the quarter, led by Nevada, California and Florida, the report said. Little relief is expected as rising payments on some $650 billion in adjustable-rate loans from the current quarter through the end of 2008 will continue to pinch homeowners' budgets.

"Given the number of loans due to reset through the middle of 2008, and the continuing weakness in home sales, we would expect foreclosure activity to remain high and even increase over the next year in many markets," James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.

Foreclosure filings recorded by RealtyTrac include default notices, auction sales notices and bank repossessions.

The trend is most pronounced among borrowers with subprime credit who due to tighter lending standards and declines in home prices have found themselves unable to refinance loans before payments rise. The foreclosure rate on these mortgages has climbed to about 6 percent in August from less than 3 percent a year earlier, and will likely peak near 10 percent by the end of 2008, according to Credit Suisse research.

The foreclosure rate will likely stay high until 2010, when it will gradually decline as credit stabilizes and good loans remaining represent a larger percentage of the total, Credit Suisse said.

Foreclosures in Nevada last quarter increased 23 percent from the second quarter and were more than three times that seen a year earlier, with 16,817 filings on 12,982 properties, RealtyTrac said. It had the highest rate of filings at one in every 61 households.

In California, 148,147 foreclosure filings on 94,772 properties represented a 36 percent rise from the previous quarter and were nearly four times that of a year ago.

Florida's foreclosures rose more than 50 percent from the second quarter, with 86,465 filings on 60,992 properties. The total was more than double that of a year earlier.


Curbing foreclosures has become a priority of many mortgage companies, which under guidance from the U.S. Treasury last month formed a coalition to help hard-pressed homeowners. Mortgage servicers are being pushed to modify existing loans where possible to prevent foreclosure, which can be more costly for lenders and investors.

Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, recently announced a program that would refinance or modify up to $16 billion in adjustable-rate loans for more than 80,000 borrowers, including those already delinquent after interest rate resets.

Such programs could result in a "paradigm shift of future performance," despite an "anemic" rate of loan modifications at present, the Credit Suisse analysts wrote.

REUTERS

Owning vs. Renting:
Still Not Close

By Greg Ip
From The Wall Street Journal Online
U.S. house prices "likely would have to fall considerably" to return to a normal relationship with rents, says a study by one former and two current Federal Reserve economists.
The study, which doesn't necessarily reflect the views of Fed policy makers, suggests prices would have to fall 15% over five years, assuming rents rose 4% a year. House prices would have to fall further if the adjustment took place more quickly.
The study tracks rents and home prices back to 1960 and found annual rents fluctuated at around 5% to 5.25% of home prices until 1995. At the end of that year, the average monthly rent was about $553 (or about $6,600 a year) and the average home price was about $134,000.
But starting in 1996, home prices started to grow much more rapidly than rents. By the end of 2006, they had more than doubled to an average of $282,000, while the average rent had risen 48% to $818. That drove the annual rent/price ratio down to 3.48%.
That means the rent/price ratio is about a third below its long-term average. To return to normal would require some combination of falling prices and rising rents. The paper suggests house prices would need to fall about 3% a year, if rents grew in line with their 4% average annual growth this decade.
Of course, the link between house prices and rents can remain out of whack for years.
The U.S. study is by Morris Davis, an economist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and until 2006 a staff economist at the Fed; and Andreas Lehnert and Robert F. Martin, staff economists at the Fed.
The authors' methodology was based in part on previously published work by Fed economist Joshua Gallin. The same approach is used by many other analysts, including the Congressional Budget Office, which arrived at similar conclusions.
In an interview, Mr. Davis said lower long-term interest rates can explain only a small part of the drop in the ratio. "To justify current price levels, you need rapid growth in rents." But it's hard to imagine the scenario that would justify such rapid growth in rents, he added. Indeed, it's possible rents will grow more slowly than 4%, reflecting the overhang of unsold homes that might be rented out.
Mr. Davis said the authors postulated a five-year horizon for the rent/price ratio to return to normal by looking at previous downturns. "When a downturn begins, it will last for a while."